Nominees include Robert J. Sawyer, John Scalzi, Charles Stross, Stephen Baxter, Nancy Kress, Gene Wolfe, Ted Chiang, Greg Egan, and almost inevitably, Connie Willis.

2008 Hugo Award Ballot

Denvention 3, the 66th World Science Fiction Convention to be held August 6-10, 2008, in Denver, has released this year's Hugo Awards nominations. The fiction nominees are listed below with an analysis of some voting trends and history.

Best Novel:

The Yiddish Policemen's Union - Michael Chabon (HarperCollins)

Brasyl by Ian McDonald (Gollancz; Pyr)

Rollback by Robert J. Sawyer (Tor; Analog 10/06-1/07)

The Last Colony by John Scalzi (Tor)

Halting State by Charles Stross (Ace)

Only Michael Chabon, whose first nomination this is, also appeared on the Nebula Ballot. Of the 55 previous novel winners who had won previously, 11 have gone to a Hugo nomination debutant. John Scalzi can be comforted that 16 other first-time winners have previously been unsuccessful, while more likely is Robert J. Sawyer, who has been nominated 11 times, as he is a previous novel winner; 17 previous winners had already won a Best Novel Award, while 8 had previously won other Hugos, as has Charles Stross, whose 10 nominations include 1 win. However, Ian MacDonald would only be the 4th winning novelist to have won the previous year, so statistically is the outsider.

Best Novella

"Memorare" - Gene Wolfe (F&SF, Apr07)

“Recovering Apollo 8” by Kristine Kathryn Rusch (Asimov’s 2/07)

“Stars Seen Through Stone” by Lucius Shepard (F&SF 7/07)

“All Seated on the Ground” by Connie Willis (Asimov’s 12/07, Subterranean Press)

"Fountain of Age" - Nancy Kress (Asimov's, Jul07)

There are four previous winners, against Gene Wolfe who has been unsuccessful 8 times. By contrast, Connie Willis has 9 previous wins from 21, while the others have all won once before, both Kress and Shepherd at this length.

Best Novelette:

"The Cambist and Lord Iron: a Fairytale of Economics” by Daniel Abraham (Logorrhea, Bantam)

“The Merchant and the Alchemist’s Gate” by Ted Chiang (Subterranean Press, F&SF Sept. 2007)

“Dark Integers” by Greg Egan (Asimov’s 10/07)

“Glory” by Greg Egan (The New Space Opera, HarperCollins/Eos)

“Finisterra” by David Moles (F&SF 12/07)

Debutants Daniel Abrahams and David Moles are up against history, as only 8 of the previous 43 novellettes have gone to first-time nominees, although 2 of them are in the last 3 years. Ted Chiang who has been nominated 5 times can be encouraged that 7-times previous nominee Greg Egan is competing against himself. Both have previously won at this length --10 other writers have done the 'double.'

Best Short Story:

“Last Contact” by Stephen Baxter (The Solaris Book of New Science Fiction)

“Tideline” by Elizabeth Bear (Asimov’s 6/07)

“Who’s Afraid of Wolf 359?” by Ken MacLeod (The New Space Opera)

“Distant Replay” by Mike Resnick (Asimov’s 4/07)

“A Small Room in Koboldtown” by Michael Swanwick (Asimov’s 4/07, The Dog Said Bow-Wow)

Michael Swanwick has won 3 times at this length, and 5 in total out of 21 nominations, as has Mike Resnick, although he has taken 26 nominations to achieve this. 13 of the previous 44 winners had previously won at short-story length, making them red-hot favourites. But Elizabeth Bear has a statistically stronger chance- 14 winners have been Hugo-nomination debutants. With 3 previous nominations, Ken MacLeod would only be the 8th winner to win his first Hugo at this length having been unsuccessful before; as would Stephen Baxter, although his previous 5 nominations might give him the sympathy vote.

Only time will tell.